Recently released market study: Philippines Power Report Q4 2013
Fast Market Research recommends "Philippines Power Report Q4 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
[UKPRwire, Sun Nov 10 2013] The threat of power outages and electricity shortages plagues the Philippines' energy sector. The government warns that the country's generating capacity would struggle to meet demand if any projects face delays in being implemented, underlining the need for new electricity capacity. Other concerns include delays in payment, with smaller power cooperatives cut off from the grid. We expect that coal and gas-fired sources of electricity will meet the majority of demand over our 10-year forecast period, but new renewables projects will see alternative sources of energy gaining ground. One other key development is the introduction of Retail Competition and Open Access, which came into force in June 2013. This should boost competition in the electricity end-user market, help lower prices and generate investment in efficiencies across the country.
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We forecast electricity generation in the Philippines to grow by 3.8% in 2013, to reach 73.0 terawatt hours (TWh). Electricity generated by gas-fired power stations will be responsible for the majority of this growth, and natural gas will outperform the market as a whole, climbing by 5.5% over 2013. Oil-fired power stations will see their contribution to electricity generation decline slightly, by just under 0.1% in 2013. We forecast hydroelectric power to represent 13.4% of total electricity generation, although a lack of rain has been affecting electricity production.
Between 2013 and 2022, we forecast growth in electricity generation to average 4.0% per annum, underpinned by a similar annual average increase in electricity consumption (4.3%). We highlight that the country's power situation will remain tenuous for the foreseeable future; in August 2013, energy secretary Carlos Jericho Petilla said that the country would face 'tightness' in power supply if RP Energy's coal-fired power plant does not come online in 2015 or early 2016.
Key trends and developments in the Philippines' electricity market:
* New projects announced include work begun by San Miguel Corp (SMC) on the 600-megawatt (MW) coal-fired power plant in Davao; First Gen has gained approval from the Department of Energy (DoE) for the development of a 80MW portfolio of hydroelectric power plants; and Palm Concepcion Power Corp signed a finance agreement with two banks to fund the construction f the 135MW coal-fired power plant in Iloilo province.
* Nuclear power's already shaky future in the Philippines faced another blow in August 2013. President Aquino's government omitted an annual allocation of PHP45mn for the maintenance of the Bataan nuclear power plant from the 2014 budget.
* From June 26, 2013, end-users consuming at least 1MW of electricity were able to select their own electricity supplier, with the commercial implementation of the Retail Competition and Open Access act.
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