New Market Report: Denmark Oil & Gas Report Q3 2013
New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Denmark Oil & Gas Report Q3 2013"
[UKPRwire, Fri Jul 12 2013] Denmark is hoping to avoid becoming an oil and gas importer for another few years, despite declining production. The government is confident the country will sustain its position as a net exporter of oil and gas until the end of the decade, with some recovery in volumes likely over the medium term. Over the longer term, shale gas could play an important role in boosting supply, but environmental concerns may slow the rate of progress.
The main trends and developments in Denmark's oil & gas sector are:
* Danish consumption of natural gas was 3.7bcm in 2012, compared with 4.0bcm in 2011, according to state energy department figures. This corresponds to a drop of 6.7%. Consumption of natural gas by large-scale combined heat and power (CHP) plants fell by 0.09bcm in 2012 because of a drop in electricity production in 2012. For the same reason consumption of natural gas by small-scale CHP plants also fell. In 2012, Danish natural gas production fell by 9.2% to 6.1bcm. Exports of natural gas fell by 4.6%, primarily due to a significant drop in exports to Germany and Sweden, while exports to the Netherlands increased significantly.
* BMI forecasts gas production and consumption will both converge towards 4.9bcm and 4.6bcm respectively by 2022, indicating that the country's modest exports are likely to come to a halt not long after the end of the forecast period. The DEA's estimates are reliant on the successful implementation of new technologies that would significantly raise output from existing fields.
* The DEA's projections show that Denmark will continue to be a net exporter of oil until the end of 2020, in line with BMI forecasts which see net oil exports lasting until 2019.The most recent five-year forecasts show declining production until 2014/15, when new fields are to be brought on stream and the planned development of existing fields will have been completed. In the short term, oil production is forecast by BMI to decline to about 175,200b/d in 2014. By 2022, BMI is assuming 150,200b/d of oil production. Oil demand in 2013 is forecast by BMI at an average 160,000b/d, rising to 167,700b/d in 2017, and to 176,300b/d by 2022. The implication is that net crude imports will have reached 26,100b/d by the end of the forecast period, if significant new domestic supply isn't located.
* The DEA points out that if the domestic oil producers succeed in raising the average field recovery factor by five percentage points to an expected 26% rate until 2035 and beyond, and if the DEA's expectations for the exploration potential are realised, Denmark will be able to maintain its position as a net exporter of oil until 2035.
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