Just Released: "Angola Oil & Gas Report Q1 2014"
New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
[UKPRwire, Thu Jan 30 2014] We retain an optimistic outlook on Angola's oil and gas sector. The planned start of a number of major upstream projects will deliver strong growth over much of our forecast period, even as we expect output to slow from the end of the decade, we note there is a significant upside risk to this view stemming from ongoing exploration targeting Angola's deepwater and sub-salt potential. The start of Angola LNG highlights opportunities - as well as technical and market - challenges on the gas side as well. With plans for frequent licensing rounds, including onshore and deepwater rounds for 2014 and 2015, we expect Angola to retain its position as major destination for investment within the industry. That said, regulatory changes and political risks remain trends given their potential to slow the busy pace of activity offshore.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Angola's oil and gas sector are as follows:
* BP started production from the PSVM field early 2013, which we expect to reach 150,000 barrels per day (b/d) of peak production by 2014. Chevron's Mafumeira Sul project received a final investment decision and is set to start production from 2016/17.
* We expect crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGL) and other liquids production to increase from approximately 1.9mn b/d in 2013 to 2.7mn b/d in 2019. This is the result of projects that have recently come on stream, such as Pazflor (220,000b/d) or PSVM (150,000 b/d), or that are scheduled to come on stream in the coming years. From the end of the decade, we expect output growth to slow on the back of a plateau in output from major upstream projects. However this upside risk should new discoveries come online or recovery rates increased from existing projects.
* Consumption of crude is likely to rise quickly from 2012 to 2022. This very high rate of growth is boosted by the country's double-digit GDP growth, as the economy experiences a catching up phenomenon following nearly three decades of civil war. We therefore anticipate that consumption will rise from an estimated 98,000b/d in 2012 to hit 179,500b/d by 2022.
* We forecast that gas production will increase from 0.81bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2012 to more than 6.0bcm after 2020. The increase in marketed gas production will be driven by reduced flaring and the start of efforts to monetise/associated gas resources from massive fields such as Pazflor (1.5bcm) and PSVM (2.5bcm).
* A busy drilling season in anticipated in the quarters ahead, with some 32 wells planned off Angola in 2014 including 15 that will test the country's pre-salt formations according to according to Domingos Cunha, head of integration at Luanda-based Sonangol. The figure of 32 pre-salt well compares to 2 in 2013. Cunha expected the trend to continue with the 'average number of wells from 2014 to 2022 is going to be around 25 a year overall, not just pre-salt.
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